Australia had almost no excess mortality for about a year after the jabs were rolled out, but the first big spike in excess mortality coincided with the first big spike in PCR positivity rate in January 2022. However the state of Western Australia got Omicron later than other states, so the PCR positivity rate remained close to zero until February 2022 but there was also no clear increase in excess deaths in January 2022, even though the daily number of new vaccines peaked in January like in other regions of Australia. In Taiwan and Hong Kong, the PCR positivity rate and excess mortality also remained close to 0% until 2022, but the first big spike in excess mortality coincided with the first spike in PCR positivity rate.
Out of the countries which already had high excess mortality in 2020, for example in Bolivia excess mortality peaked at about 245% in July 2020 the same month when PCR positivity rate peaked at about 58%, in Chile excess mortality peaked at about 52% in June the same month when PCR positivity rate peaked at about 31%, in Colombia excess mortality peaked at about 61% in August the same month when PCR positivity rate peaked at about 31%, and in South Africa excess mortality peaked at about 42% in July the same month when the PCR positivity rate peaked at about 25%.
In Peru a spike in excess deaths in early 2021 occurred around the same time in all age groups even though younger age groups got vaccinated much later than older age groups.
In many Southern American countries, the COVID deaths, excess deaths, and PCR positivity rate all fell close to zero around September 2021, even though some of the countries had a large number of new vaccines given around the same time. For example in Chile the PCR positivity rate went from less than 1% in September 2021 to about 32% in February 2022, and at the same time excess mortality went from about 3% in September 2021 to about 63% in February 2022. And a similar pattern was also followed by Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. (And if PCR positivity tests have a high rate of false positives like some people claim, then why has the percentage of positive tests often fallen below 1% in entire countries? The percentage of false positives cannot be higher than the total percentage of positives.)
On page 102 of Rancourt's paper, there's a plot which shows that the "vaccine dose fatality ratio" of the fourth dose divided by the third dose is much higher for Chile than for Peru. However that's because the fourth dose was rolled out earlier in Chile than Peru, so it coincided with the spike in deaths caused by Omicron in Chile but not Peru. From pages 76 to 79 of Rancourt's paper, you can see the peak in excess mortality in early 2022 occurred around the same time in all age groups, but younger age groups received the fourth dose later than older age groups, so in older age groups the peak in daily vaccine doses occurred before the peak in deaths, but in younger age groups the peak in daily vaccine doses occurred after the peak in deaths.
In 16 out of 17 countries in Rancourt's paper, excess mortality had a higher correlation with PCR positivity rate than with the daily number of new vaccines, and in 7 countries the correlation with the number of new vaccines was negative but the correlation with PCR positivity rate was not negative in any country.
Countries with a lower percentage of vaccinated population in 2021 tended to have higher excess mortality in 2021, with a correlation of about -0.47. For example out of the four Asian countries in Rancourt's paper, Singapore had both the highest percentage of vaccinated people and the lowest excess mortality, but Philippines had both the lowest percentage of vaccinated people and the highest excess mortality. And similarly out of the South American countries in Rancourt's paper, Chile and Uruguay were the two countries with the lowest excess mortality in 2021 but they were also the two countries with the highest percentage of vaccinated people in 2021.
Rancourt claimed that there were no COVID measures or treatments that were performed synchronously around the world in January to February 2022, even though actually in all countries featured in his paper that have hospitalization data available at OWID, there was a spike in hospitalizations for COVID around January or February 2022.
On a list of explanations for why there was a synchronous spike in deaths all over the world around January to February 2022, Rancourt failed to include the possibility that there was a deliberate release of Omicron. Omicron, Alpha, and Delta all emerged in a saltation event where multiple novel nonsynonymous spike mutations appeared simultaneously out of nowhere. If you compare the spike protein of a consensus sequence of XBB.1.5 Omicron sequences to Wuhan-Hu-1, there's a total of 41 nonsynonymous mutations but only 1 synonymous mutations, which results in a dN/dS ratio of 41, even though among 100 SARS1 sequences the average dN/dS ratio was about 3.6 and in H1N1 samples from Finland from 2009 it was around 0.2-1.2. If the spike of Wuhan-Hu-1 is compared to BANAL-52, there's 176 synonymous mutations but only 20 nonsynonymous mutations, so the XBB.1.5 consensus has over double the number of nonsynonymous mutations. In the nucleocapsid protein of B.1.1, Alpha, BA.1, and BA.2, there's an unusual series of three consecutive nucleotide changes at positions 28,881-28,883, but a similar phenomenon was not previously known to occur in nature, so the authors of a Japanese paper had to coin a new term called "en bloc exchange" to describe the phenomenon. And even in the scenario where Omicron was not released deliberately or it was only released deliberately at a single location, it could've still spread around the world faster than the Wuhan strain because it has been estimated to have a much higher R₀ value than the Wuhan strain.
I believe that your explanation fails to understand that COVID deaths went up after the vaccination program, accounting for about half of the excess mortality. This is in populations that were near 100% vaccinated.
The Australia figures are shockingly clear. Prior to July 2021 (the 50% vaccination mark and before the unlawful death of Adriana Takara used to propagandise the vaccine rollout to under-40s who could never have benefited from it based on the available (yet fraudulent) RCT data... there were 1000 COVID deaths, of which 900 were Victorian nursing homes. Essentially 100 "real" COVID deaths. After the rollout in the same time period there were 18,000 COVID deaths. It is not possible to conclude anything BUT negative vaccine efficacy for death, by a long shot.
The other mortality causes were likely multifactorial but for people on the ground witnessing strange patterns of disease there is clearly something not right. Unfortunately we have to rely on the same government departments who were caught out with manipulating data during COVID to produce figures regarding cancer, heart disease and dementia.
Only when these are fully auditable will we be able to get to the bottom of the fraud that has been perpetrated. Using their data for analysis is fraught with limitations.
Thank you. You have lifted the debate to a new level. I'm more familiar with NZ data. Your insights and programming skills on Github are impressive. My analysis relies on use of the visual package App over at the Short Term Mortality Fluctuation site, run by Berkley.
I have presented this elsewhere . My theory is that excess deaths were reduced, even negative when borders were closed and winter seasonal deaths among the elderly evaporated. We saw this in NZ in 2020. The same situation prevailed in 2021. Both 2020 and 2021 had essentially no Covid deaths, yet in 2021, around week 17, the death rates among the elderly jumped relative to 2020 and remained higher until week 42. What changed? It can't be a rapid aging, as we saw that 2021, apart from the first 2-weeks, had basically the same, or slightly lower death rates than 2020 for the first 16-weeks. The most obvious difference was the vaccine rollout to the elderly from around week 15 of 2021. Now let's switch to 2022. If you subtract true covid deaths (45-65% of all Covid deaths following a positive pcr) from the total weekly all cause mortality, you will find periods where there was no correlation between ACM and Covid deaths. So I agree with you that on the surface it appears there were no excess deaths caused by vaccination, at least in the short term during 2021, but no excess death does not imply there were no deaths due to vaccination. If you remove the 1200-1500 winter deaths that drove the regression line fitting of 2015-2019 ACM data, this is the data that the OWID's model is based on, then the baseline is well below what occurred in 2021 and 2022 and more like the baseline established in 2020. Ignoring this gives the illusion that excess deaths only occurred due to Covid deaths.
PS: where did you find all that nteresting info about the types and quantatative nature of virus mutations?
PPS: Calculating cumulative excess death from March 2020 to December 2022 conceals the excess deaths that occurred in 2022. The trick then becomes to tease out the data to separate vaccine injury from Covid injury. One needs to apply the adjustments I mention above. Another point to consider is the number of hospital admissions following vaccination. There was a large increase which burdened the hospital system. Many were potentially lethal, but averted by medical intervention.
It was a major propaganda success when they told the population nobody would die of COVID after the jab, then more people died of COVID, then they said didn't we do well?...
anybody see the extrapolation study showing 17 MILLION people dead worldwide from the jabs?
https://eccentrik.substack.com/p/study-17-million-dead-from-the-mrna
Yes Rancourt's analysis is pretty solid.
He also said there was NO pandemic 👀
No mild about it.
I addressed some problems with Rancourt's paper here: https://mongol-fi.github.io/nopandemic.html#Rancourts_paper_about_southern_hemisphere_and_equatorial_countries.
Australia had almost no excess mortality for about a year after the jabs were rolled out, but the first big spike in excess mortality coincided with the first big spike in PCR positivity rate in January 2022. However the state of Western Australia got Omicron later than other states, so the PCR positivity rate remained close to zero until February 2022 but there was also no clear increase in excess deaths in January 2022, even though the daily number of new vaccines peaked in January like in other regions of Australia. In Taiwan and Hong Kong, the PCR positivity rate and excess mortality also remained close to 0% until 2022, but the first big spike in excess mortality coincided with the first spike in PCR positivity rate.
Out of the countries which already had high excess mortality in 2020, for example in Bolivia excess mortality peaked at about 245% in July 2020 the same month when PCR positivity rate peaked at about 58%, in Chile excess mortality peaked at about 52% in June the same month when PCR positivity rate peaked at about 31%, in Colombia excess mortality peaked at about 61% in August the same month when PCR positivity rate peaked at about 31%, and in South Africa excess mortality peaked at about 42% in July the same month when the PCR positivity rate peaked at about 25%.
In Peru a spike in excess deaths in early 2021 occurred around the same time in all age groups even though younger age groups got vaccinated much later than older age groups.
In many Southern American countries, the COVID deaths, excess deaths, and PCR positivity rate all fell close to zero around September 2021, even though some of the countries had a large number of new vaccines given around the same time. For example in Chile the PCR positivity rate went from less than 1% in September 2021 to about 32% in February 2022, and at the same time excess mortality went from about 3% in September 2021 to about 63% in February 2022. And a similar pattern was also followed by Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. (And if PCR positivity tests have a high rate of false positives like some people claim, then why has the percentage of positive tests often fallen below 1% in entire countries? The percentage of false positives cannot be higher than the total percentage of positives.)
On page 102 of Rancourt's paper, there's a plot which shows that the "vaccine dose fatality ratio" of the fourth dose divided by the third dose is much higher for Chile than for Peru. However that's because the fourth dose was rolled out earlier in Chile than Peru, so it coincided with the spike in deaths caused by Omicron in Chile but not Peru. From pages 76 to 79 of Rancourt's paper, you can see the peak in excess mortality in early 2022 occurred around the same time in all age groups, but younger age groups received the fourth dose later than older age groups, so in older age groups the peak in daily vaccine doses occurred before the peak in deaths, but in younger age groups the peak in daily vaccine doses occurred after the peak in deaths.
In 16 out of 17 countries in Rancourt's paper, excess mortality had a higher correlation with PCR positivity rate than with the daily number of new vaccines, and in 7 countries the correlation with the number of new vaccines was negative but the correlation with PCR positivity rate was not negative in any country.
Countries with a lower percentage of vaccinated population in 2021 tended to have higher excess mortality in 2021, with a correlation of about -0.47. For example out of the four Asian countries in Rancourt's paper, Singapore had both the highest percentage of vaccinated people and the lowest excess mortality, but Philippines had both the lowest percentage of vaccinated people and the highest excess mortality. And similarly out of the South American countries in Rancourt's paper, Chile and Uruguay were the two countries with the lowest excess mortality in 2021 but they were also the two countries with the highest percentage of vaccinated people in 2021.
Rancourt claimed that there were no COVID measures or treatments that were performed synchronously around the world in January to February 2022, even though actually in all countries featured in his paper that have hospitalization data available at OWID, there was a spike in hospitalizations for COVID around January or February 2022.
On a list of explanations for why there was a synchronous spike in deaths all over the world around January to February 2022, Rancourt failed to include the possibility that there was a deliberate release of Omicron. Omicron, Alpha, and Delta all emerged in a saltation event where multiple novel nonsynonymous spike mutations appeared simultaneously out of nowhere. If you compare the spike protein of a consensus sequence of XBB.1.5 Omicron sequences to Wuhan-Hu-1, there's a total of 41 nonsynonymous mutations but only 1 synonymous mutations, which results in a dN/dS ratio of 41, even though among 100 SARS1 sequences the average dN/dS ratio was about 3.6 and in H1N1 samples from Finland from 2009 it was around 0.2-1.2. If the spike of Wuhan-Hu-1 is compared to BANAL-52, there's 176 synonymous mutations but only 20 nonsynonymous mutations, so the XBB.1.5 consensus has over double the number of nonsynonymous mutations. In the nucleocapsid protein of B.1.1, Alpha, BA.1, and BA.2, there's an unusual series of three consecutive nucleotide changes at positions 28,881-28,883, but a similar phenomenon was not previously known to occur in nature, so the authors of a Japanese paper had to coin a new term called "en bloc exchange" to describe the phenomenon. And even in the scenario where Omicron was not released deliberately or it was only released deliberately at a single location, it could've still spread around the world faster than the Wuhan strain because it has been estimated to have a much higher R₀ value than the Wuhan strain.
I believe that your explanation fails to understand that COVID deaths went up after the vaccination program, accounting for about half of the excess mortality. This is in populations that were near 100% vaccinated.
The Australia figures are shockingly clear. Prior to July 2021 (the 50% vaccination mark and before the unlawful death of Adriana Takara used to propagandise the vaccine rollout to under-40s who could never have benefited from it based on the available (yet fraudulent) RCT data... there were 1000 COVID deaths, of which 900 were Victorian nursing homes. Essentially 100 "real" COVID deaths. After the rollout in the same time period there were 18,000 COVID deaths. It is not possible to conclude anything BUT negative vaccine efficacy for death, by a long shot.
The other mortality causes were likely multifactorial but for people on the ground witnessing strange patterns of disease there is clearly something not right. Unfortunately we have to rely on the same government departments who were caught out with manipulating data during COVID to produce figures regarding cancer, heart disease and dementia.
Only when these are fully auditable will we be able to get to the bottom of the fraud that has been perpetrated. Using their data for analysis is fraught with limitations.
Thank you. You have lifted the debate to a new level. I'm more familiar with NZ data. Your insights and programming skills on Github are impressive. My analysis relies on use of the visual package App over at the Short Term Mortality Fluctuation site, run by Berkley.
I have presented this elsewhere . My theory is that excess deaths were reduced, even negative when borders were closed and winter seasonal deaths among the elderly evaporated. We saw this in NZ in 2020. The same situation prevailed in 2021. Both 2020 and 2021 had essentially no Covid deaths, yet in 2021, around week 17, the death rates among the elderly jumped relative to 2020 and remained higher until week 42. What changed? It can't be a rapid aging, as we saw that 2021, apart from the first 2-weeks, had basically the same, or slightly lower death rates than 2020 for the first 16-weeks. The most obvious difference was the vaccine rollout to the elderly from around week 15 of 2021. Now let's switch to 2022. If you subtract true covid deaths (45-65% of all Covid deaths following a positive pcr) from the total weekly all cause mortality, you will find periods where there was no correlation between ACM and Covid deaths. So I agree with you that on the surface it appears there were no excess deaths caused by vaccination, at least in the short term during 2021, but no excess death does not imply there were no deaths due to vaccination. If you remove the 1200-1500 winter deaths that drove the regression line fitting of 2015-2019 ACM data, this is the data that the OWID's model is based on, then the baseline is well below what occurred in 2021 and 2022 and more like the baseline established in 2020. Ignoring this gives the illusion that excess deaths only occurred due to Covid deaths.
PS: where did you find all that nteresting info about the types and quantatative nature of virus mutations?
PPS: Calculating cumulative excess death from March 2020 to December 2022 conceals the excess deaths that occurred in 2022. The trick then becomes to tease out the data to separate vaccine injury from Covid injury. One needs to apply the adjustments I mention above. Another point to consider is the number of hospital admissions following vaccination. There was a large increase which burdened the hospital system. Many were potentially lethal, but averted by medical intervention.
It was a major propaganda success when they told the population nobody would die of COVID after the jab, then more people died of COVID, then they said didn't we do well?...
Yes, it went like this, "it would have been much worse without vaccination".
Now we know, "worse" means not dying nor getting disabled. How blatantly, in-your-face, depopulationist!
Nobody died from "Covid."
How do you die from a fictional disease?
How do AIdiots die of their idiocy?
That's the low ball figure.