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Ted's avatar

Today's report is yet another tour de force, Doc. Many thanks.

I've been working with loss ratio data to derive actionable causation assignment for the past twenty-five years. During that time, I've encountered more spurious correlation than I had ever imagined could possibly be retailed by those we reasonably expect to know better.

Interesting data you've linked to in the wholesale indemnity market. What stands out about the actuarial industry's pronunciomentos, is their foray into causation assignment; it is a fool's errand.

Loss ratios can be changed by modifying inclusion criteria for commitment to indemnify, and that is the sole province of actuaries. Correlates are actionable only in that fashion. The numbers are always subject to a signal-to-noise ratio. Assignment of causation must be conducted at a level of granular assessment, and that requires close review of policy, process and procedure. Actuaries can only analyze the policies affecting commitments to indemnify; they are not competent to assess the mutivariate effects of process and procedure, that assessment requires other specialized training and knowledge.

The assignments you've reported on today, are the result of motivated reasoning by people incompetent to make such distinctions.

When I said goodbye to dozens of colleagues laid off during the first wave of house arrests, I was given a travel pass to violate the 24-hour curfew applicable to all but "essential workers" such as myself. Those of us remaining, worked ourselves to complete exhaustion covering the desks of those subject to what was a de-facto form of martial law.

Had I not been subjected to the horror of being issued the papers I was required to show at checkpoints or random traffic stops manned by armed enforcement officers, I would not have delved so deeply into the data from the very beginning of the Covid hysteria.

Many others far more qualified to opine on the data than I, have published their findings. My most fervent hope was that my assessments would be proven entirely incorrect. Thus far, I have been entirely disappointed.

Your review of the "circular firing squad" assembled as mechanism for avoiding accountability, is quite instructive. Thank you again for your efforts.

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Madeleine Love's avatar

TLDR yet.

But as someone whose whole professional work life was in Actuarial Depts of Life Insurance companies (about a decade), passing subjects such as Mortality Statistics and Life Contingencies, I can categorically say (and did, in my submission, published by the Senate Committee, and here on substack https://madeleinelove.substack.com/p/revised-submission-to-the-excess), that the Australian Institute of Actuaries' Submission to the Excess Mortality Inquiry was a crock of sh**. The authors should be tossed out of the professional institute.

NB: That submission has been updated with a lot more work. (see subsequent substack posts on Excess Mortality)

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